Original Title: “2025 Asset Review: Value Misalignment Between the AI Singularity and Entropy Increase – Why Bitcoin Significantly Underperformed Gold and U.S. Stocks”
Original Author: XinGPT, Crypto KOL
When observing Bitcoin’s performance in 2025, many people focus solely on price comparisons, failing to understand why it underperformed U.S. stocks led by NVIDIA, and even lagged behind traditional safe-haven assets like gold.
From a higher-dimensional perspective, this is essentially a question of physics and information theory. Price is merely a surface phenomenon; the underlying energy flows and information density are the essence.
1. The Crowding Effect of Energy Arbitrage: The Shift in Computing Power Dominance
In Musk’s logic, value is often linked to energy conversion efficiency. Over the past decade, Bitcoin has been the only machine capable of converting energy into digital scarce assets on a large scale, representing a thermodynamic-based value anchor.
However, from 2024 to 2025, an extremely strong competitor emerged: generative artificial intelligence.
The core driver of U.S. stocks today is not fiat currency inflation but the exponential explosion in total factor productivity (TFP) brought about by AI. When tech giants invest hundreds of billions of dollars in building data centers, they are essentially competing for the global electricity quota.
At this stage, the economic value added by each kilowatt-hour of electricity used to train the next generation of large models or power high-performance computing chips temporarily exceeds the returns from using it for hash collisions to generate Bitcoin. The difference in marginal returns shapes price and capital choices—just look at how many Bitcoin mining farms have been converted into AI computing centers.
Capital is profit-seeking and sensitive. When the growth curve of silicon-based intelligence becomes steeper than the scarcity curve of “digital reserves,” the global excess liquidity will prioritize productive assets with nonlinear growth potential over purely digital assets.
2. Gold’s “Atomic Properties” vs. Bitcoin’s “Code Consensus”
Gold’s strong performance this year is essentially a result of the global geopolitical entropy increase.
In the face of deglobalization and systemic uncertainty, sovereign-level players require an asset that does not rely on network connectivity or any clearing system. Under this extreme system-failure logic, ancient gold provides atomic-level certainty.
Although Bitcoin is hailed as digital gold, it still heavily depends on internet infrastructure and centralized liquidity channels. When the system faces the risk of physical disconnection, atomic-level certainty temporarily prevails over the consensus of bits—physical gold can at least be held in hand or stored in a cave.
Gold hedges against systemic collapse, while Bitcoin is currently viewed more by the market as an overflow of systemic liquidity.
3. The “Volatility Dampening” Effect of ETFs
Tools shape behavior. The widespread adoption of Bitcoin spot ETFs marks the formal taming of this beast.
After entering traditional asset allocation portfolios, Bitcoin began adhering to traditional financial risk management models. While this has brought long-term capital support, it has also significantly smoothed its volatility, stifling its explosive potential.
Today’s Bitcoin increasingly resembles a high-beta technology index. As the Federal Reserve maintains high interest rates longer than market expectations, this “long-tail asset,” which is extremely sensitive to liquidity, is naturally suppressed.
4. The Siphoning Effect of the Productivity Singularity on Bitcoin’s Narrative
Charlie Munger emphasizes opportunity cost.
If holding monopolistic AI leaders offers highly certain nonlinear growth, then holding Bitcoin, which generates no cash flow, carries an extremely high opportunity cost.
2025 is a rare eve of a productivity singularity in human history, with all capital chasing the node that may give rise to superintelligence. As a “challenger to the monetary system,” Bitcoin’s appeal is diluted in the short term in the face of the narrative of the productivity revolution.
5. Phase Transition Adjustment Period in the Fractal Structure
From the perspective of complex systems, U.S. stocks are in a parabolic acceleration phase driven by AI.
In fractal geometry, tiny structures continuously self-replicate and amplify through simple iterative formulas. AI is playing the role of this iterative operator. From the underlying NVIDIA computing power to the mid-level cloud services and the upper-level software applications, each layer replicates the logic of “productivity explosion.” This structure is incredibly grand, but it also means the system is approaching the physical limits of this local dimension.
Gold’s performance amid the collapse of the old order can be understood through the construction process of the Cantor Set, which involves repeatedly removing the middle third. In the current global financial fractal, what is being removed is “credit expansion,” “unfulfillable promises,” and “high-entropy debt.”
As the old order is continuously fragmented by debt crises and geopolitical turmoil, the final remaining set of disconnected yet indestructible points is gold. This is a value density generated through “subtraction,” the most stable physical foundation within the fractal structure.
Bitcoin’s current state is essentially the result of hedging forces at different scales: selling pressure from early profit-taking participants and continuous buying by sovereign nations and long-term capital offset each other over time, compressing the price into a long-term low-volatility range.
This prolonged low-volatility oscillation is dynamically referred to as the reconstruction of the “Attractor.”
This fractal system is accumulating over time, reserving space for the next scale change.
Ultimately, Bitcoin in 2025 has not been disproven but rather repriced. It temporarily yields to the demands of the productivity singularity and geopolitical defense, bearing the cost of time rather than direction.
When the marginal efficiency of AI declines and capital liquidity continues to overflow, Bitcoin will return to its true strength: serving as a cross-cycle liquidity value carrier.
