Author: Metrics Ventures
Metrics Ventures December Market Observation Guide
1/ With 2025 nearly settled, first, wishing all MVC friends a happy holiday season! Looking back, 2025 was frigid for crypto investing, with crypto assets ranking at the bottom in annual return rate in the USD market, primarily due to the Q4 collapse. As the year ends, we hope everyone can take advantage of the dull market to rest and recharge, ready to regroup next year.
2/ There’s actually little worth analyzing in the market over the past month; it’s been in a lifeless, chaotic state, with trading volumes shrinking on both CEXs and the NYSE, volatility sharply contracting, and token exchanges within the current narrow range nearing an end. What’s more troubling for high-frequency traders is that this decline shows no near-term turning point, with so-called “painting the door” and “flash crashes” likely to dominate the recent trend. This period might be better suited for rest and consolidation, allowing for more systematic reflection on the market.
Overview and Commentary on Overall Market Conditions and Trends
Compared to the crypto market, the spotlight in capital markets over the past month has been on precious metals. The anticipated Q4 rally within the crypto circle didn’t fail to materialize; rather, it was hijacked by silver—currently, silver’s monthly trading volume on Shanghai Silver alone exceeds 75 trillion RMB, and COMEX option open interest is several times the actual market inventory. This frenzy recalls the 2020–2021 crypto market, making Bitcoin’s sluggish state all the more lamentable. Specifically, since October, the relative price strength of gold versus Bitcoin has broken through the long-term downtrend since the 2020 easing, making this high-level capital rotation even more apparent.
Chart: Gold vs. Bitcoin Price Exchange Rate Pair
Of course, there are still some positive signals in the market: MSTR retaining its NASDAQ100 index status, clearer guidance from the Fed chair, and the potential crisis of the AI bubble all provide support for 2026’s market outlook. Standing at the end of 2025, we still believe this is a continuation of the year-long consolidation that began at the end of 2024. Amid wide price fluctuations, there will always be ebbs and flows; now is simply a time to conserve energy and build strength.
This month’s report is relatively brief, which also aligns more with our theme of favoring rest. Once again, wishing everyone a happy holiday season, and we’ll see you in 2026!
