Original Title: A Simple Lighter Valuation Framework (Bear/Base/Bull)
Author: @chuk_xyz
Compiled by: Peggy, BlockBeats

Editor’s Note: As Lighter approaches its TGE, the market’s divergence in valuation stems not from sentiment, but from differing interpretations of its product positioning and growth trajectory. Is it merely another perpetual contract exchange, or a trading infrastructure capable of supporting broader distribution and asset forms? The answer determines the valuation ceiling.

This article attempts to move beyond the lazy framework of \”simple benchmarking\” and return to more verifiable facts: actual TVL and trading volume scale, proven revenue capability, first-mover advantage in the RWA space, and a product expansion roadmap pointing to 2026. On this basis, the author provides a valuation range that does not rely on sentiment, using \”zones\” rather than \”target prices\” to address uncertainty.

Below is the original text:

As Lighter’s TGE approaches, the market has shown significant divergence regarding \”how much it is actually worth.\”

On one hand, some simply categorize it as \”another perpetual contract exchange,\” believing it will struggle to compete with Hyperliquid; on the other hand, there are already real market signals indicating its scale and potential influence may far exceed that of a typical Perp DEX launch.

TL;DR: Current market pricing for Lighter remains largely concentrated in the low single-digit tens of billions USD FDV range; but if fundamentals continue to materialize and key catalysts fall into place, its reasonable repricing range may be closer to $60–125 billion, or even higher.

Disclosure: I am an early user of Lighter (644.3 points) and am likely to receive an airdrop. This article represents personal research and views only and does not constitute any investment advice.

My Lighter Points

In my view, the current situation is roughly as follows: based on trading on Polymarket, the market-implied valuation for Lighter is approximately $2–3 billion (at least according to current price signals being traded).

In the over-the-counter (OTC) market, Lighter points are trading around $90 each; assuming approximately 11.7 million points, this corresponds to an airdrop value of about $1.05 billion.
If this airdrop accounts for about 25% of the total token supply, extrapolating upward gives Lighter a fully diluted valuation (FDV) of approximately $4.2 billion.

Lighter previously completed a $68 million funding round at a valuation of approximately $1.5 billion, led by Founders Fund and Ribbit (as reported by Fortune).
Founders Fund has a long and outstanding track record of early bets on category-defining companies, having invested in iconic firms like Facebook, SpaceX, Palantir, Stripe, Airbnb, etc.

Additionally, $LIT’s pre-market pricing roughly corresponds to an FDV of approximately $3.5 billion, which can be considered a real-time market reference signal (though still early-stage and not entirely precise).

So, my judgment framework is actually simple: $1.5 billion can be seen as the valuation floor (bearish range, anchored by the VC funding round pricing). $3–4.2 billion belongs to the bearish-to-base range (prediction markets, pre-market prices, and point-based reverse valuations roughly cluster here).

The real core question is: based on fundamentals and catalysts, does Lighter deserve a revaluation to the $6–12.5 billion or even higher range.

The purpose of this analysis is precisely to try to logically clarify these issues: what exactly Lighter’s product is, what signals the data releases, which valuation frameworks are reasonable, and which catalysts may drive further upward revaluation.

1. A Key Misunderstanding: Lighter and Hyperliquid Are Not the Same Type of Product

The clearest mental model I’ve found so far is:

Hyperliquid is building a Web3-native liquidity layer, with its primary monetization coming from retail trading fees (augmented by network effects at the ecosystem level).

Lighter is building a set of decentralized trading infrastructure, with the long-term goal of onboarding fintech companies, brokers, and professional market makers, while pushing execution costs extremely low on the retail side (even achieving 0% fees for some spot markets).

From this perspective, the problems they solve, the customer segments they serve, and their long-term business paths are fundamentally different.

Lighter vs Hyperliquid Business Model Source: @eugene_bulltime

This distinction is important because it directly determines where the valuation ceiling lies.

If Lighter is just \”another perpetual contract exchange,\” then it being priced similarly to other Perp DEXs is logically unsurprising; but if it is essentially a trading infrastructure that can be integrated by large distribution channels (brokers / fintech companies), then the valuation ceiling it faces is an entirely different set of rules.

2. Where Lighter Stands Now (The Truly Important Data)

First, look at the most critical set of metrics currently:

TVL: $1.44 billion

LLP TVL: $698 million (Lighter’s liquidity pool, used for trade execution and system stability)

Open Interest: $1.7 billion

Trading Volume: 24h: $5.41 billion / 7d: $44.4 billion / 30d: $248.3 billion

Revenue: Last 30d: ~$13.8 million / Last 1y: ~$167.9 million

The \”texture\” conveyed by these numbers itself is important: this is already real scale. A monthly trading volume of $248.3 billion is definitely not a \”hobbyist\” exchange.

The open interest (OI) scale is substantial but not so high as to risk \”systemic chaos from a single extreme liquidation.\”

The TVL is sufficiently high, allowing Lighter to reasonably position itself as a trading venue capable of handling large trades with stability—and reliability is one of the core elements institutions value most.

Risk Rationality Check: OI / TVL (Open Interest / Total Value Locked)

A quick method to measure leverage levels and liquidity matching is calculating OI/TVL (open interest divided by TVL). Based on current snapshot data:

Lighter: 1.71B / 1.44B ≈ 1.18

Hyperliquid: 7.29B / 4.01B ≈ 1.82

Aster: 2.48B / 1.29B ≈ 1.92

Visually, Lighter’s OI/TVL is significantly lower, meaning it has more ample liquidity buffers under relatively controlled leverage levels. This structure does not pursue extreme efficiency but leans more toward robust execution and system resilience—consistent with its positioning as an \”infrastructure-type trading system.\”

Key Conclusion: Lighter already has considerable open interest, but relative to its liquidity levels, it is not overly stretched; compared to the closest leading peers, its risk structure is more restrained and robust.

3. Spot Market: A Key Unlock for Further TVL Upside

Lighter recently launched spot trading, the importance of which may be significantly underestimated by the market.

Perpetual contracts can indeed generate massive trading volume, but what truly retains \”sticky capital\” is often the spot market—especially when a trading platform has clear advantages in execution efficiency and cost.
Simultaneously, spot trading significantly broadens the potential user base: for new users, spot is a lower-barrier entry point; for market makers, spot provides more reasons to hold and allocate inventory on the platform long-term.

Currently, ETH is the only spot asset launched. This is not a limitation but a starting point. The truly noteworthy signal is: the \”track\” for spot trading is already open, and the product itself has the structural foundation to smoothly expand as more assets are added.

Lighter Spot Token Value Chart (WETH) (Source: DeFiLlama)

Even with only ETH launched so far, DeFiLlama data shows Lighter’s spot side has already accumulated approximately $32.33 million in WETH value (snapshot time: 2025/12/18).
This is still in the early stages, but the signal is correct: capital has started to \”park\” on the spot side.

If Lighter follows the publicly hinted path, gradually introducing dozens (or eventually hundreds) of spot assets, then spot will become a substantive driver of TVL growth, not just a \”nice-to-have\” feature module.

More importantly, ETH spot’s 0% fee itself is a powerful wedge. As long as execution quality remains stable (tight spreads, reliable fills), it will naturally attract active traders and institutions to route high-frequency strategies, as well as spot–perpetual basis trades, to Lighter. The result is very direct: more trades → more inventory → deeper liquidity, forming a self-reinforcing positive feedback loop.

The conclusion is clear: Spot launch is an important milestone. ETH is just the first step; the real upside comes after expanding the spot asset catalog, gradually making the platform the default venue for on-chain \”trading + holding.\”

4. RWA: The 2026 Unlock (And Why Lighter Is Already Ahead)

One of the clearest signals that Lighter is not \”another Perp DEX\” comes from RWA (real-world assets).

RWA (tokenized stocks, forex, commodities, indices, etc.) essentially bridges crypto trading with traditional markets. If by 2026, tokenized assets continue migrating on-chain, then the trading platform that first captures RWA gains not just more volume, but a new growth curve most Perp DEXs are not prepared for.

The key is not narrative, but the scoreboard. And data-wise, Lighter is already ahead.

RWA Leadership: The Data Speaks

Lighter already leads in both open interest (OI) and trading volume for on-chain RWA perpetual contracts. This combination is crucial:

OI reflects the scale of long-term exposure traders hold;

Trading volume reflects daily usage intensity and activity.

When a trading venue leads in both metrics, it typically means traders are not just \”testing the waters\” but already using it as their primary battlefield for that product line.

This is also why RWA is more like a structural opportunity for Lighter: it’s not chasing a trend, but pre-positioning in a market poised to expand.

RWA Open Interest: Lighter Leads the Space (Source: PerpetualPulse.xyz)

In the current snapshot, RWA perpetual contract open interest is roughly:

Lighter: ~$273 million

Hyperliquid: ~$249 million

This gap is important because RWA is still in its early stages. In early markets, liquidity often exhibits highly concentrated characteristics:
When a trading venue first aggregates scaled liquidity, spreads tighten, fill quality improves, and better execution experience in turn attracts more capital and volume, forming a self-reinforcing positive feedback loop.

From this perspective, Lighter’s lead in RWA OI is not just a static ranking, but more like the starting point of potential compounding effects.

RWA Trading Volume: Lighter Also Leads in Activity (Source: PerpetualPulse.xyz)

Looking at trading volume, this trend is even clearer:

Lighter: ~$484 million

Hyperliquid: ~$327 million

This is a typical pattern of early product-market fit (PMF): a new category begins to take shape, and one trading venue first absorbs a disproportionate share of trading activity. When usage frequency and execution experience continuously accumulate on the same platform, the lead tends to be further amplified.

The Market Size Is Underestimated

It’s worth zooming out: tokenized RWA is not a niche space. On public blockchains, it’s already a multi-billion dollar market, and the growth curve remains upward.
This means that platforms that first establish liquidity, execution quality, and user habits are not just winning current trading volume, but also locking in a long-term growth channel that is still expanding.

\”Global Market Overview\” Dashboard (Source: rwa.xyz)

Tokenized RWA on public blockchains has reached approximately $18.9+ billion and is still in its early stages.

This is important because RWA is one of the few narratives that doesn’t need to \”compete for attention\” within the crypto circle: it can expand outward, bringing real-world assets and real-world trading behavior on-chain, directly creating incremental growth rather than internal competition.

Why This Is a Major Valuation Catalyst

RWA perpetual contracts have already validated real demand; but the bigger unlock lies in the next step: RWA spot.

Perpetual contracts are good for speculation;

Spot is key to expanding the user base.

If Lighter can become one of the earliest to offer credible RWA spot trading (tokenized stocks / forex / commodities) on-chain, while simultaneously achieving strong execution quality and institutional-grade reliability, it’s not just adding a feature, but substantively expanding the total addressable market (TAM).

This also directly relates to the Robinhood alignment narrative: once tokenized stocks become a real product distribution channel, the value of the \”backend exchange / infrastructure layer\” significantly amplifies—because in trading, distribution capability is the hardest moat to build.

The Roadmap Supports This Direction

From the product roadmap perspective, Lighter is clearly pointing toward 2026: deeper RWA expansion, and the supporting capabilities needed for its scale (mobile, portfolio margin, prediction markets, etc.).
This is not a one-time narrative, but a continuously amplifying product curve.

Chainlink × Lighter Seoul Offline Event \”2026 – Expansion\” Roadmap Slide

If RWA is one of the most important themes of 2026, then entering early and already leading in OI and trading volume is itself a strong opening move.

The conclusion is clear: RWA is not Lighter’s \”side quest.\” Instead, it looks more like the clearest path to outsized growth in 2026–2027—because this path expands L”}