Jiang Zhuoer: Market Expected to Fall First Then Rise After Fed Decision, Bitcoin May Test $84,000

Tapbit news, September 16 news. Jiang Zhuoer, founder of the LakeBTC mining pool, stated that the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision at 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on September 17. Based on calculations from the 30-day federal funds futures price, the current probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike is approximately 92%. He expects the Fed to raise the target rate range from 3.50% to 3.75% to 3.75% to 4.00%. After the rate decision is announced, the Fed will also release the dot plot. Jiang Zhuoer said that attention should be focused on the median interest rate forecast and the central tendency range after removing the three highest and three lowest points. He expects the dot plot to show a total of two rate hikes in 2022, meaning there will be one more rate hike this year after this one, and the realization of these expectations may trigger a short-term market decline.

Jiang Zhuoer believes that the speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, starting at 2:30 a.m., is the biggest variable and expects it may release dovish signals. Therefore, he judges that the most likely market path is "first down, then up": a decline after the rate decision and dot plot are released, followed by a rebound after Warsh's speech. He predicts that Bitcoin may fall below $75,000 before rebounding to between $83,000 and $84,000, and then undergo a larger adjustment.