Release Date: 2026.03.16 · BlockBeats
Trump is set to announce the “Hormuz Alliance” this week while considering whether to deploy ground forces to seize Kharg Island. Brent crude didn’t believe him, surging over $3 per barrel on Sunday to break through $105. In another development today, Alibaba consolidated all its AI assets into one business group under direct CEO oversight, while China’s second chipmaker prepared for 7nm production on the same day.
1｜Hormuz Alliance + Kharg Island Option: Trump’s First Trap of His Own Making
Four sources told Axios that Trump is contacting multiple countries to form a “Hormuz Alliance,” with an announcement expected this week aimed at forcibly reopening the strait. Meanwhile, the White House is assessing another option: deploying U.S. ground forces to directly occupy Kharg Island, through which 90% of Iran’s oil exports transit. The market wasn’t convinced, with Brent crude jumping over $3 per barrel on Sunday to surpass $105. The WSJ also confirmed that the alliance announcement itself failed to suppress oil prices.
The fundamental difference between the two options is that the alliance is a diplomatic display that can be reversed, while landing ground troops on the island is a substantive commitment with no “one-click withdrawal.” This is the first time in the third week of the Iran war that Trump has been truly forced into an extreme corner. His usual style relies on intuition and improvisation, playing and retracting cards with equal casualness. But Axios’ behind-the-scenes analysis notes that the war is the first situation where he cannot unilaterally control the outcome—Iran’s drones don’t care whether he tweeted in the afternoon, and the strait doesn’t automatically reopen just because he held a press conference. On the same day, he also accused Iran of using AI to spread disinformation, officially bringing AI into the information warfare framework of the Iran conflict.
Morning reports spoke of a divided cabinet, with Sacks wanting to withdraw and Hegseth shouting “no survivors.” Evening signals indicate the cabinet remains ununified, but Trump is simultaneously pushing more aggressive military options externally. It’s not a coherent strategy but two opposite directions being pursued at once.
(Sources: Axios / WSJ / Reuters)
2｜Alibaba ATH + China’s Second 7nm Fab: Broadening the “Mid-Section” of Sanctions
Alibaba today established the Alibaba Token Hub (ATH) business group, directly overseen by CEO Wu Yongming, consolidating Tongyi Lab, MaaS business line, Qianwen, Wukong, and the AI Innovation Division into one entity—encompassing everything from foundational model R&D to consumer applications in a single chain. Its U.S. stock rose nearly 3% in pre-market trading. This is the first clear move by a major Chinese internet firm to organize the entire AI value chain—not just “setting up an AI department” but “restructuring into an AI company.”
On the same day, Reuters exclusively reported that China’s second-largest chipmaker is preparing for 7nm mass production on newly acquired land in Taiwan. Previously, market consensus held that only SMIC could produce advanced nodes; now there are at least two. Reuters Breakingviews published a contemporaneous article noting that AI influence among Chinese tech veterans like Baidu and 360 is being eroded by newcomers like DeepSeek and Kimi.
The logic of U.S. sanctions is to choke the head—restricting TSMC supply and blocking GPU exports. But China’s response is taking a different path: at the application layer, integrating AI into the largest commercial entity; at the manufacturing layer, enabling a second player to reach 7nm. Each additional node reduces the precision and effectiveness of sanctions. This isn’t circumventing sanctions; it’s turning a single point into a surface.
(Sources: 36Kr / Reuters / Bloomberg)
3｜On the Eve of GTC: Thompson Says No Bubble, Foxconn Uses Profits to Say “But Demand Isn’t There Yet”
Ben Thompson today published a perfectly timed article titled “Agents Over Bubbles,” which itself is a thesis. AI is neither a bursting bubble nor mere hype; the real issue is the business model of the Agent era. Nvidia’s GTC opens tomorrow, with The Information reporting that Groq chips will be unveiled then.
But on the same day, Bloomberg’s headline highlighted Foxconn’s missed profit expectations, sparking AI demand concerns. As one of Nvidia’s largest hardware manufacturing partners, Foxconn’s profit miss led markets to wonder if AI hardware shipments have already peaked. Meanwhile, Meta announced plans to invest up to $270 billion in AI infrastructure with Nebius, following earlier reports of “20% layoffs.” Meta is doubling down on compute while cutting costs—simultaneously trimming headcount and pouring in money.
Three signals stacked together: Thompson is saying you’re asking the wrong question, Foxconn is saying there’s still a demand gap, and Meta is saying it will build regardless. GTC is the moment the exam paper is handed out—Nvidia must clarify how compute power monetizes in the Agent era.
(Sources: Stratechery / Bloomberg / Wired / The Information)
4｜Two Gray Markets Diverge: Prediction Markets Whitening, AI Deepfake Fraud Scaling Up
Wired reports that while legal battles over prediction markets continue, Wall Street financial institutions are already placing bets themselves. Legal gray areas haven’t stopped capital—a script almost identical to cryptocurrency’s prelude.
Simultaneously, another Wired article reveals dozens of Telegram channels publicly recruiting “AI facial models,” primarily women, to cooperate with AI video call tools and complete up to 100 fraudulent video calls daily—using real faces to package AI-generated scripts for scams. This is no longer “AI tools being used for fraud” but a complete gray labor market with recruitment, division of labor, and compensation structures.
The structure of both stories is the same: after AI’s large-scale deployment, markets move first where regulation hasn’t arrived. Prediction markets are moving toward legalization, with institutional capital entry often a precursor to regulatory follow-up; AI deepfake fraud is moving toward scale, becoming harder to combat after industrialization. Not the same path, but both starting from the same point: AI capability proliferation outpaces governance speed.
(Sources: Wired / Wired)
Also Worth Knowing ↓
On the day Alibaba ATH was announced, U.S. large-cap tech stocks rose broadly in pre-market trading, with Chinese ADRs collectively strengthening. Meta and Intel gained over 3%, Alibaba rose nearly 3%, Bilibili climbed nearly 3%, while NIO and Li Auto advanced over 2%—the strongest performance for Chinese ADRs in nearly a week. (Source: 36Kr)
UniCredit launched a $28 billion offer to acquire the remaining shares of Commerzbank. After securing a minority stake in Commerzbank last year, UniCredit today escalated the offer to a controlling level. German regulators’ stance is the key variable as European banking consolidation enters a genuine M&A phase. (Source: WSJ)
Leapmotor achieved its first full-year profit, with “Half-Price Li Auto” learning Li Auto’s profit model. After two years of price wars in China’s EV sector, the first to demonstrate a profitable model isn’t the leader but Leapmotor, priced at half of Li Auto’s. The survivor’s next step isn’t further price cuts but building moats. (Source: QbitAI)
Google and Accel screened 4,000 Indian AI startup pitches—70% were wrappers—and ultimately selected only five. None of those chosen were shell companies. In the hottest AI startup market, what caught the eye of both Google and Accel were those not following the herd. (Source: TechCrunch)
LinkedIn Editor-in-Chief Daniel Roth used Claude Code to launch two iOS apps without writing a single line of code. A journalist with zero programming background, he used a “builder + reviewer” dual-Agent mechanism to push apps onto the App Store—this actually happened, not a demo. The line where programming barriers vanish moved forward another notch today. (Source: Lenny’s Newsletter)
