Renowned trader Killa: Bitcoin may bottom before the midterm elections; be cautious of the rally after the midterms

Tapbit news, October 17 - Well-known trader Killa recently released a video predicting market trends around the U.S. midterm elections. His analysis summarized the timing relationship between previous midterm elections and Bitcoin bottoms (2014: bottomed about 70 days after the midterms. 2018: bottomed about 40-44 days later. 2022: bottomed almost during the midterm election period), believing that before this November 3 U.S. midterm election, Bitcoin may form a weekly-level bottom.

He also presented two main scenario assumptions:

Early bottom scenario: BTC forms a low before (or near) the midterm elections (possibly sweeping the current low, or holding above 80k), then begins to rebound, first testing the 80k area, and ultimately possibly hitting 95k. This would lead to a bullish fourth quarter, contrary to most people's expectation of "de-risking after the election."

Classic de-risking scenario: first rise and spike higher (possibly sweeping the high even to 94-95k), then after the midterm elections see the historically common sell-off/de-risking decline (similar in 3 of the past 4 times).

Killa advises investors to closely observe the price structure entering the midterm elections and then react accordingly. If a bottom forms early, one could hold bullish positions after the election; if it spikes higher and then begins to weaken, consider de-risking. Overall, he emphasizes that patterns are accelerating and changing, and one cannot simply copy the historical experience that "it must fall after the election."

Killa, as a quantitative trader focused on BTC, previously predicted the peak of this bull market in May 2025 and has more than 200,000 followers on the X platform. In mid-April, he shorted Bitcoin at $74,688 and turned long during the market-wide decline on June 5.

[Source]