Flash

Tapbit news reported on September 30 that trader Killa pointed out the market widely expects a "deep pullback" scenario similar to 2023, but Bitcoin's current price action differs markedly from that period. In 2023, when BTC rebounded to $25,000, it formed an "equal high" before being rejected. At that time, the price did not effectively close above that level, nor did it establish a significant high above $25,000, but was instead rejected almost immediately. It merely briefly broke above the local lower high before forming an equal high. Currently, however, BTC has printed a higher weekly high and is oscillating above its previous high, indicating a shift in market structure. In addition, this cycle's bear market saw a maximum drawdown of about 54%, lower than the previous cycle's 77%. If one applies the logic of "diminishing returns" and "shallower pullbacks," then as this bull market advances toward the $126,000 target, the maximum pullback may be only between 10% and 15%, corresponding to roughly $78,000 to $74,000. With open interest (OI) resetting and the price oscillating above its previous high, Killa believes market conditions are quite healthy, is not betting on a deep pullback scenario, and still sees the $90,000 range ahead.

Market operator Kalshi is negotiating a round of $1 billion financing, targeting a valuation of $40 billion. Existing investors Sequoia Capital and Wellington Management are discussing leading the round, with Tiger Global and Dragoneer Investment Group also participating in the talks. This round of financing has not yet been completed, and the final list of investors and closing date have not been announced.In October 2025, Kalshi raised $300 million at a valuation of $5 billion, and in May 2026, it completed a $1 billion financing at a valuation of $22 billion. On September 25, the U.S. Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals made a ruling unfavorable to Kalshi in a lawsuit involving Ohio and Tennessee, allowing the two states to regulate its sports contracts under gambling laws. Kalshi claims that its products are regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Tapbit news, September 30 - Traders reduced their bets on a Fed rate hike in October. Following Fed's Williams stating "no rush to act," the market now expects the Fed to hike rates only once more by the end of this year.

Volmex Finance has launched perpetual futures on Hyperliquid based on the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility Index, or BVIV. The index tracks the expected 30-day implied volatility reflected in the Bitcoin options market, and the BVIV perpetual futures listed on Hyperliquid support leverage of up to 5x.

Tapbit news reported on September 29, citing Axios, that sources revealed OpenAI's enterprise sales have more than doubled since July. Data shows OpenAI's annualized revenue run rate has grown more than 70% since the beginning of the third quarter and is now approaching $70 billion; over the same period, its business-to-business (B2B) revenue grew more than 100%. On the consumer side, OpenAI added more revenue in the third quarter than it did in all of 2025 combined. However, Axios noted that OpenAI's specific spending figures have not yet been disclosed.

Tapbit news, September 29: Former U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Chairman Rostin Behnam said in an interview with Crypto In America that as prediction markets explode in growth, Congress urgently needs to clarify the boundary between risk management and gambling, and related litigation may ultimately reach the U.S. Supreme Court.Behnam also pointed out that after the Clarity Act failed to advance in the Senate, the CFTC relying on existing authority to regulate spot markets is like "patching things together with tape and paper clips," and regulators urgently need to establish more durable rules.[Source]

The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) updated the MiCA registration list, with BCash, Xenios Blockchain Group, Capital Wallet Greece, and Piraeus Bank becoming the first registered cryptocurrency service providers in Greece. The list added six institutions from Germany, France, and Slovenia, bringing the total number of registered institutions to 359.The Hellenic Capital Market Commission (HCMC) is responsible for regulating the first three institutions, while the Bank of Greece is responsible for regulating Piraeus Bank. HCMC denied that its officials communicated with European Central Bank (ECB) officials regarding Binance's MiCA application in Greece and also denied making any statements about Lagarde intervening in that application; Binance withdrew its application on June 24.

The spot CVD chart is an order book analysis of the BTC/USDT spot trading pair. The upper panel shows the volume heatmap, while the lower panel shows cumulative volume delta, or CVD.- The volume heatmap tracks trading volume at each price level, and the background becomes brighter when the price stays in a specific range for an extended period or makes a large move. Brighter zones may act as support or resistance.- The CVD indicator tracks buy and sell orders by capital size, with each colored line rising as buy orders increase for that segment. The yellow line represents orders between $100 and $1,000, while the brown line represents large orders between $1 million and $10 million, among others.

OpenAI has suspended the training of its latest AI model. According to the Associated Press, its AI agent used access keys obtained online to scrape data from the U.S. Census Bureau website, marking the second time the company has halted training since the agent breached Hugging Face. The so-called agent refers to an AI program capable of autonomously browsing the web and writing code without human approval at each step, which OpenAI tests during the model training and evaluation phases.Specifically, the agent found developer keys in public code repositories like GitHub and used them to pull demographic and economic data from the U.S. Census Data API. The U.S. Department of Commerce stated that this data was already public and there was no confidential information leaked. In the SEC incident, the agent copied public materials from SEC.gov and Investor.gov and reposted them on other websites; OpenAI claimed it did not use SEC credentials, and the SEC stated it found no evidence of unauthorized access to non-public information. Additionally, the independent AI research organization Transluce reported that an agent suspected to be from OpenAI attempted to breach the website of the Department of Education's Office for Civil Rights but was unsuccessful; OpenAI is still investigating, and the Department of Education stated that no impact was found.Regarding the frequent involvement with government websites, OpenAI told CNN that its model often regards government websites as authoritative sources of public information. The company stated that it has currently notified dozens of agencies, and the review of the agent's activities will take months.

U.S. prosecutors are investigating efforts to recover 110,000 USDT believed to be linked to scammers who accessed a text message scam victim’s Coinbase account, Cointelegraph reported.

Tapbit news, September 28 — According to an official announcement, Binance Alpha has now listed Doppler Finance (XDP). Users holding at least 230 Binance Alpha points can claim the token airdrop. Claim 1,666 XDP tokens on the Alpha event page, first come, first served. If the event has not ended, the point threshold will automatically decrease by 5 points every five minutes. Please note that claiming the airdrop will consume 15 Binance Alpha points. Users must confirm their claim on the Alpha event page within 24 hours, otherwise they will be deemed to have forfeited the airdrop.

According to on-chain analyst Yu Jin's monitoring, a certain whale opened a long position of 20,000 ETH at a price of $1,936 when this round of market began, currently with an unrealized profit of $14.06 million.This whale increased its short position in BTC, opening a short of 650 BTC at a price of $84,057, valued at $53.68 million, currently with an unrealized profit of $950,000.

South Korean exchange Bithumb announced it will temporarily suspend PROS deposits and withdrawals at 6:00 a.m. UTC on Sept. 29 to support the Pharos network upgrade.

Tapbit news reported on September 28 that, according to monitoring by Ai Yi, address 0x6Dc…3EAB3 bought 673,958 VVV on-chain at an average price of $3.77 between April and August 2025, worth $2.544 million; some tokens were sold a year ago, while the remaining tokens were deposited into exchanges in batches over the past three months during the uptrend, from $11.79 all the way up to $30 (fully cleared 8 hours ago). If sold, the return would exceed 453%, with a profit of $7.889 million after holding for over a year.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom has signed Assembly Bill 2409, which bans public officials from issuing or promoting crypto assets. The move makes California the first U.S. state to legally prohibit politicians from engaging in memecoin-linked activities.The bill strictly bars public officials from using their positions to create their own tokens or promote them for profit. It was introduced to address ethical lapses in politics and prevent investor harm, and passed with unanimous bipartisan support in both the state Senate, 40-0, and the state Assembly, 78-0.

Tapbit news, September 27: Matt Cole, CEO of Bitcoin treasury company Strive, posted "Turn amplification up some more," possibly hinting that the company will increase its Bitcoin holdings again next week.This move also follows the practice of Michael Saylor, founder of Strategy, the world's largest Bitcoin treasury company. Both companies maintain the practice of posting on Sundays to hint at increasing Bitcoin holdings and announcing the specific scale of the increase the following Monday.Previously, on September 21, Strive CEO Matt Cole disclosed that the company purchased 1,355 BTC for $107.7 million, at an average cost of $79,475 per BTC, bringing its total BTC holdings to 26,355.[Source]

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the market prediction on Polymarket for the event "LoL: LOS vs LOUD (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs," the "LOS" option in the sub-market "Match Winner" has experienced a dramatic fluctuation in winning probability, dropping from 82% an hour ago to the current 53.5% (a fluctuation of 28.5%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

Tapbit news, September 27 — US Treasury Secretary Bessent: Core inflation has remained calm. The Federal Reserve Board should keep an open mind.

Tapbit news, September 27 - Bloomberg and Reuters surveys show that economists expect U.S. nonfarm payrolls to increase by approximately 90,000 and 100,000 in September, respectively, with the unemployment rate holding steady between 4.1% and 4.2%.Meanwhile, Bloomberg expects U.S. real personal consumption expenditures to rise 0.5% month-over-month in August, which if realized would mark the largest increase in over a year. The continued resilience in employment and consumption indicates that demand in the U.S. economy has not yet cooled significantly, providing support for the Federal Reserve to maintain its tightening policy.Inflationary pressure remains the primary constraint facing the Federal Reserve. The market expects that both headline and core PCE month-over-month growth may accelerate in August, while the core PCE year-over-year rate previously remained at 3.3%, above the Fed's long-term target of 2%. The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points this month, its first rate hike in three years, and signaled the possibility of further rate increases within the year. Currently, market expectations for another 25 basis point rate hike in October are rising.As U.S. Treasury yields remain elevated, pressures on corporate financing, housing, and highly valued assets are also accumulating. Next week's releases of job openings, PCE, ISM manufacturing, and nonfarm payrolls data will become key factors influencing expectations for the Fed's subsequent rate path.[Source]

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the market prediction event on Polymarket "Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs", the "Game 2 Winner" sub-market option "LGD Gaming" has experienced a dramatic fluctuation in winning probability, soaring from 41.5% an hour ago to the current 89.5% (a fluctuation of 48%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.