Today’s CME FedWatch data: probability of maintaining rates unchanged in March is 96%

2026-02-24 by admin

Deep Tide TechFlow News, February 20th: According to Jin10 data, today’s CME “FedWatch” data shows: The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in March is 4.0%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 96.0%. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut by April is 17.3%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 82.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 0.6%. By June, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 46.8%.

BlockBeats News, March 2 - The Middle East situation has sharply deteriorated, with the U.S. and Israel launching large-scale airstrikes against Iran. Iran confirmed that multiple senior officials, including the supreme leader, were killed in the attacks. The spillover effects of the conflict quickly impacted global energy and financial markets.Trump stated that military operations against Iran could last about four weeks, with U.S. forces having struck hundreds of targets, including the headquarters of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, air defense systems, and naval facilities, and claimed that nuclear facilities were not involved. The U.S. disclosed the use of equipment such as B-2 stealth bombers.Iran announced the establishment of a provisional leadership committee, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps stated it had launched the ninth round of the "True Promise 4" operation, claiming to have shot down multiple U.S. and Israeli drones. Iran warned that if its energy facilities were attacked, it would strike regional oil and gas installations.Shipping data shows over 200 vessels, including oil and liquefied gas carriers, have anchored in the Strait of Hormuz and nearby waters. A tanker was attacked and damaged along the Persian Gulf coast. Insurance brokerage agencies estimate war risk premiums may rise by 25%–50%.Goldman Sachs estimates that if the Strait of Hormuz supply is fully disrupted for 6 weeks, oil prices could see a risk premium of $18 per barrel; if only 50% supply is disrupted for 1 month, the premium would be around $4. International oil prices surged, with Brent Crude and WTI Crude Oil significantly higher at the open. Several institutions believe that if oil prices approach $90 per barrel, global inflation and monetary policy paths will face reassessment.Safe-haven sentiment intensified, with gold strengthening, USD/JPY largely stable, and USD/CHF declining. EUR/USD fell below 1.18. Major Middle Eastern stock indices dropped 4%–5% intraday, Iran's stock market halted trading, and multiple exchanges in the UAE announced temporary closures. According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in March is 93.6%, with markets still betting on no policy changes in the short term.The U.S. Capitol will implement enhanced security measures. The UK reported an explosion at a British military base in Cyprus. Curfews were imposed in parts of northern Pakistan. The EU announced it will deploy additional vessels to strengthen security in the Red Sea and Gulf waters. Analysis suggests the core variables currently are:1) Whether the Strait of Hormuz remains obstructed;2) Whether the conflict expands to broader regions;3) Whether rising energy prices reignite global inflation expectations.If energy transportation remains smooth, markets may stage a recovery; if oil and gas supplies face substantial impacts, global asset price volatility could further amplify.

Deep Tide TechFlow News, February 28, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin posted on social media stating that Ethereum proposal EIP-8141 will comprehensively address the Account Abstraction (AA) issue. This proposal introduces the concept of "frame transactions," allowing transactions to contain multiple calls that can read each other's call data, and can authorize senders and pay gas fees.EIP-8141 supports multiple application scenarios, including multi-signature, accounts with replaceable keys, quantum-resistant signature schemes, atomic operations, and paying gas fees with other tokens. The proposal is also compatible with privacy protocols, eliminating user experience issues caused by public broadcasters, and complements FOCIL (Fast Transaction Inclusion Guarantee).Vitalik stated that after over a decade of research and technical refinement, EIP-8141 is expected to be implemented via the Hegota fork within a year.

深潮 TechFlow 消息，2 月 28 日，据 Coinmarketcap 数据，今日加密货币市值前 100 代币表现如下，涨幅前五：Pippin（PIPPIN）涨 9.00%，现价 0.5915 美元；Kite（KITE）涨 4.75%，现价 0.2549 美元；PAX Gold（PAXG）涨 3.48%，现价 5,430.49 美元；MemeCore（M）涨 2.65%，现价 1.47 美元；Tether Gold（XAUT）涨 2.53%，现价 5,348.23 美元。跌幅前五：Decred（DCR）跌 16.58%，现价 29.84 美元；KuCoin Token（KCS）跌 9.46%，现价 7.59 美元；Arbitrum（ARB）跌 8.28%，现价 0.0934 美元；Artificial Superintelligence Alliance（FET）跌 6.78%，现价 0.1484 美元；Render（RENDER）跌 6.50%，现价 1.33 美元。