The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in January next year rises to 86.7%

2025-12-272025-12-25 by admin

BlockBeats News, December 25th, according to CME ‘FedWatch’ data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year is 13.3%, while the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 86.7%.

BlockBeats news, on February 14, Stephen Douglass of NISA Investment Advisors stated that about one-third of the inflationary pressure related to tariffs may gradually transmit to the economy in the coming months.This keeps the economy on track for solid performance while allowing the Federal Reserve to remain on hold for a period. "We are getting back on track for a soft landing," he said, "the labor market will stabilize, and the final ripple of tariff inflation will be transmitted in the first half of this year."He expects goods inflation to fall below zero in the second half of the year, creating room for the Federal Reserve to resume interest rate cuts later than market expectations. "Our forecast for this year is one rate cut in September and one in December." (Jin10)

BlockBeats News, February 14 – According to Fortune, Binance recently laid off multiple compliance investigators. Internal documents reveal that these investigators had internally reported that from March 2024 to August 2025, entities linked to Iran received over $1 billion through Binance. The transactions involved the stablecoin Tether (USDT) and were settled on the Tron network, potentially violating U.S. sanctions.The report states that at least five investigators have been dismissed since late 2025, many of whom had law enforcement backgrounds in Europe and Asia and were responsible for global financial crime and sanctions evasion investigations. In addition to these individuals, at least four senior compliance employees have left or been forced to depart in the past three months.In 2023, Binance reached a settlement with the U.S. Department of Justice for violating anti-money laundering and sanctions regulations, paying a $4.3 billion fine. Founder CZ pleaded guilty and resigned as CEO, later sentenced to four months in prison. The company subsequently entered a period of government regulatory oversight and committed to strengthening its compliance system.In response to the latest report, a Binance spokesperson stated that the company cannot comment on ongoing investigations and emphasized its continued adherence to applicable sanctions laws and regulations in all jurisdictions.

PANews reported on February 13th that, according to The Block, SEC Chairman Paul Atkins stated at a Senate Banking Committee hearing that prediction markets are a "huge problem" and a shared regulatory focus with Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Michael Selig. Atkins pointed out that prediction markets have "potential jurisdictional overlap," currently primarily under the jurisdiction of the CFTC, but the two agencies will work together. When asked about the development of clear rules, he said "we'll have to wait and see," adding that "securities are securities, and the definition of prediction markets and their products depends on the specific wording." CFTC Chairman Selig stated that he will ensure "reasonable rules and safeguards" are in place for prediction markets to prevent them from being pushed overseas. The question of who has the right to regulate prediction markets has become a focal point of contention between federal and state governments. Operators argue that, under the Commodity Exchange Act, all event contracts should fall under the jurisdiction of the CFTC; while some states argue that these platforms involve activities such as sports betting, violating local gambling laws. Prediction markets have also recently received additional attention due to insider trading allegations and restrictive legislation targeting political betting.

BlockBeats news, on February 13, Coinbase released its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 financial results after the U.S. stock market closed this morning. Despite the overall downturn in the crypto market, Coinbase achieved multiple historic highs, with trading volume and market share doubling, but Q4 revenue slightly missed expectations and recorded a net loss.Coinbase reported a net loss of $667 million in the fourth quarter, with a loss per share of $2.49, far exceeding analysts' expectations. Total revenue was $1.78 billion, down 5% quarter-over-quarter and approximately 22% year-over-year, falling short of market expectations of $1.83 billion to $1.85 billion. Adjusted earnings per share were $0.66, adjusted net income was $178 million, and adjusted EBITDA was $566 million.Coinbase faced pressure in the fourth quarter but delivered strong full-year performance, with total trading volume reaching $5.2 trillion, a 156% year-over-year increase, crypto trading market share doubling to approximately 6.4%, subscription and service revenue growing 23% to about $2.8 billion, Coinbase One paid subscribers nearing 1 million, and platform assets and USDC balances hitting all-time highs.Coinbase stated that it is advancing its "Everything Exchange" strategy, including derivatives expansion and stablecoin payments. Despite short-term headwinds from the bear market, Coinbase views 2025 as a strong year and remains optimistic about product innovation and market recovery in 2026.