The U.S.-Israeli attempt to assassinate Iran’s supreme leader and president has failed.

As Tehran’s air defense sirens suddenly blared, Israel, in conjunction with the U.S., launched a large-scale military strike codenamed “Roaring Lion,” directly targeting Iranian nuclear facilities, air defense systems, and missile production lines. Trump promptly publicly confirmed U.S. military involvement, calling it a “major combat operation.”

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard swiftly retaliated, unleashing hundreds of missiles and drones toward Israel and U.S. military bases in the Persian Gulf. Israel declared a nationwide state of emergency and closed its airspace entirely. Explosions were heard near Abu Dhabi Airport, and an Asian citizen was killed by falling debris.

In response to the strikes, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps quickly counterattacked, pouring hundreds of missiles and drones toward Israel and U.S. military bases around the Persian Gulf.

The financial market’s reaction was brutal and honest. Within just 1 hour, BTC sell volume surged by approximately $1.8 billion.

After the U.S. and Israel launched attacks on Iran, BTC briefly fell to $63,000, with perpetual futures funding rates dropping to -6%, the second lowest level in nearly three months; the last time it reached this level was on February 6th when BTC bottomed near $60,000. Meanwhile, as gold markets were closed, gold futures surged nearly 6% against the trend.

Currently, Israel has entered a nationwide state of emergency, with its airspace fully closed. While the international community is still cautiously defining whether this constitutes “full-scale war,” this high-intensity localized conflict has substantially altered the regional landscape.

The Heart of the Crypto Industry, on the Edge of War

As the smoke of war spreads, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE—three countries at geopolitical crossroads—are enduring both physical and psychological pressures.

Southern Lebanon has become a second front for clashes between Hezbollah and the Israeli military. Beirut International Airport was urgently closed, and the city’s skies frequently echo with the sonic booms from Israeli fighter jets flying at supersonic speeds.

Although Saudi Arabia strives to remain neutral, its airspace has become a “corridor” for missile flights. The Prince Sultan Air Base, which hosts U.S. troops, has entered its highest alert level, and the Saudi government is strictly guarding against any stray munitions accidentally striking facilities within its territory.

Dubai International Airport is currently experiencing widespread flight cancellations, and Abu Dhabi’s Al Dhafra Air Base frequently sounds alarms. If the Strait of Hormuz is blockaded, Dubai’s shipping and financial status would suffer a devastating blow.

Several explosions were heard near the main airport in Abu Dhabi, UAE, and according to multiple media reports, an Iranian airstrike caused falling debris to hit a residential area in Abu Dhabi, resulting in the death of an Asian citizen.

These regions on the edge of war are precisely where the crypto industry has shifted its focus in recent years. The UAE has evolved into a global cryptocurrency hub, meaning this war is threatening the crypto industry in unprecedented ways, to varying degrees.

Binance has officially ended its “headquarters-free” era, establishing its global headquarters in Abu Dhabi, UAE (ADGM). Meanwhile, it has a large office space in Dubai (located in One Central). OK has a major regional hub in Dubai (near the World Trade Center), having just expanded its Dubai office at the end of 2025, with over 100 employees serving the entire Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Bybit moved its global headquarters from Singapore to Dubai (One Central) in 2023, with nearly all staff working in Dubai.

Almost every major institution you can name has established roots in Dubai or Abu Dhabi. And Dubai is only about 300 kilometers from Iran’s southern coastline, separated only by the Persian Gulf.

Additionally, other well-known international projects and trading platforms have also set up in the Middle East. For example, Crypto.com holds a full operational license in Dubai and recently signed multiple payment cooperation agreements with the Dubai government. Kraken has its Middle East headquarters in Abu Dhabi and was among the first international platforms to obtain a local license. Chainalysis, a top blockchain analytics company, has an office in Dubai responsible for monitoring money laundering and illicit financing activities in the region. They are currently closely monitoring crypto fund flows within Iran.

The situation for local native trading platforms is even more precarious; their foundations are in the Middle East, and if war breaks out, they could face survival crises. For instance, Rain Financial is headquartered in Bahrain with a large office in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Since Bahrain is extremely close to Iran and hosts the U.S. Fifth Fleet, it may face high geopolitical security risks.

BitOasis is Dubai’s earliest and largest local trading platform, with users almost entirely concentrated in Gulf countries; CoinMENA is headquartered in Bahrain, primarily serving users in Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Dubai and Abu Dhabi are global hubs for Web3 talent. If war erupts, a large-scale talent exodus or cyberattacks (Cyberwarfare) on network infrastructure could stall development progress for multiple projects.

If the Middle Eastern banking system is sanctioned due to war or temporarily closed for security reasons, these trading platforms’ local AED (Dirham) or SAR (Riyal) deposit and withdrawal channels could become paralyzed.

Outlook for Next Week’s Market

Against the extreme backdrop of the “Roaring Lion” operation’s outbreak on February 28, 2026, next Monday, March 2nd, at market open may be a critical window for financial markets to experience the “war shockwave.”

As the ultimate safe-haven asset, gold is the sole “ultimate insurance” in geopolitical crises. With the U.S. military announcing the start of a “major combat operation,” global safe-haven funds will flood into the gold market the moment markets open on Monday.

Some analysts believe Iran’s threat to blockade the Strait of Hormuz will cause crude oil prices to soar. The secondary inflation expectations from high oil prices will further push up gold prices. It is anticipated that gold will open with a massive upward gap on Monday. If Iran’s retaliation expands to civilian shipping lanes in the Persian Gulf over the weekend, gold prices could challenge the psychological barrier of $5,300-$5,800 per ounce in the short term, reaching new all-time highs.

As for BTC, although Bitcoin is dubbed “digital gold,” in the initial hours to days after a war outbreak, it is typically viewed as a risk asset. Institutional investors, to raise liquidity or meet margin calls in stock markets, often first sell the most liquid crypto assets.

As mentioned earlier, Dubai and Abu Dhabi are global Web3 hubs. Physical security threats in the region could cause investors to worry about the operational stability of related exchanges (like Binance, Bybit), leading to panic selling.

If global stock markets (S&P 500, Nasdaq) plummet next Monday and Middle Eastern fiat currencies (like the Riyal, Dirham) experience exchange rate turbulence, Bitcoin’s attributes as a decentralized safe-haven asset might begin to awaken.

Some long-term bullish views suggest Monday might first see a pullback (support could be near key integer levels), followed by a potential “decoupling” rally for Bitcoin if the conflict evolves into a prolonged standoff and traditional financial payments are hindered. Battlefield news continues to update, with the most important indicator being to monitor Bitcoin’s trading volume.

In the end, war harms every ordinary person.

Southern Lebanon has become a second front, with Beirut Airport closed. Saudi airspace has turned into a missile corridor. Dubai Airport faces widespread flight cancellations. Bahrain, the home base for Rain Financial and CoinMENA, hosts the U.S. Fifth Fleet and is extremely close to Iran.

Web3 talent will flee, project development will stall, and network infrastructure could suffer cyberwar attacks. But these are still industry-level costs. The more real costs are: someone has already died. Families are fleeing. Children are spending tonight in bomb shelters.

History repeatedly tells us that there are no real winners in war. It destroys not just buildings and markets, but the trust, order, and future built by a generation. One of the original intents behind cryptocurrency’s creation was to give ordinary people a measure of autonomy in an out-of-control world. But without peace, even the most decentralized system will tremble under real-world artillery fire.

Perhaps there isn’t much we can do. But at the very least, we should not remain indifferent to what is happening. And we hope this conflict can be resolved as soon as possible.