BlockBeats News, April 19, Georgetown University Qatar campus political science associate professor Musgrave believes that neither the US nor Iran has reached a “political tipping point,” and the war may continue for “some time.” Iran has once again closed the Strait of Hormuz after briefly reopening it for a day. Trump responded that Tehran cannot blackmail the US, while Iran’s Supreme Leader stated that the Iranian navy is ready to deliver a “new painful defeat” to the enemy.
Musgrave indicated that interest groups on both sides are leveraging their influence to pursue their respective outcomes: Iran’s Revolutionary Guard hopes to take a tougher stance against the US in negotiations, while Trump wants a “beautiful, shiny victory.” The current situation is “unstable,” with both sides unable to find a compromise on structural issues such as nuclear activities and economic impacts.
Trump’s persistent optimism about reaching a deal makes him appear “somewhat weak,” but if no one is willing to offer a deal, he has no choice but to continue. (Jin10)
