ChainCatcher reports, according to CME “FedWatch” data, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year has fallen below 20%, currently reported at 19.9%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 80.1%. Last week, the probability of a Fed rate cut in January had risen to 31%.
The probability of the Fed maintaining rates unchanged until March next year is 44.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 46.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 8.8%.
The dates for the Fed’s next two FOMC meetings are January 28, 2026, and March 18, 2026.
