BlockBeats news, February 20, Sean Farrell, head of digital asset strategy at Tom Lee’s Fundstrat, released the latest Ethereum analysis. The current average cost of ETH is $2,241, while the current price is $1,934, resulting in an average investor loss of 22%. Comparing the current decline to historical lows, the average maximum investor loss reached 39% in 2022 and 21% in 2025. Applying these two figures to the current average cost of $2,241 suggests ETH could potentially drop to lows of $1,367 or $1,770.
Based on realized loss percentile analysis since 2017 to project future returns, the current average loss is at the 9% percentile of historical highs, indicating a relatively high loss level. The implied 12-month return is +81%. This suggests Ethereum’s price is nearing a bottom. In the long term, Ethereum’s risk/reward ratio appears positive.
Tom Lee himself reposted the analysis, stating it helps in considering investor capital flows and position allocation near lows.
