BlockBeats News, January 19th, Kevin Hassett, White House economic adviser and director of the National Economic Council, recently stated publicly that President Trump is more likely to want him to remain in his current White House position. This statement has been interpreted by the market as essentially withdrawing from the race for the next Federal Reserve chair.
Following Trump’s public signal, prediction markets quickly adjusted expectations. Data from Kalshi and Polymarket show that the probability of former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh becoming the next Fed chair has surged to about 60%, clearly leading; Hassett’s chances have dropped to approximately 15%–16%, while current Governor Christopher Waller stands at about 13%–14%. Previously, Warsh and Hassett were nearly neck-and-neck.
Analysts point out that Warsh has become the “clear frontrunner” for the first time, but Trump’s historically unpredictable style on personnel matters means the final outcome remains uncertain. Other major candidates currently seen include Waller and BlackRock executive Rick Rieder.
Meanwhile, a judicial investigation into the renovation project of the Federal Reserve headquarters has added uncertainty to the chair selection, reigniting market concerns about the Fed’s independence. Treasury Secretary Besant downplayed the impact, noting overall stable market performance and stating that the Senate is expected to accept Trump’s final nominee.
The term of current Federal Reserve Chair Powell ends on May 15th. Trump has indicated he will announce a successor within this month but has not provided a specific timeline.
