ChainCatcher news, CryptoQuant institutional Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. released the latest analysis stating that Bitcoin has declined 19.7% (approximately $21,500) over the past three months, with a year-to-date drop of 10.5% (approximately $10,400), showing a significant correction trend.
Although prices have stabilized in the short term (weekly gain of 1.5%, monthly loss of 0.5%), the monthly RSI indicator shows weakening market momentum, with a current value of 56.5, falling below the 12-month moving average (67.3) for the first time, and only 2 points away from the 4-year moving average (58.7). According to historical data, an RSI drop below the 4-year moving average typically signals that the market may enter a deeper bearish phase.
Adler noted that the next 1-2 months are critical. If the RSI can remain between 55-58, Bitcoin may potentially recover; if it continues to fall below 55, it could enter a deeper downtrend. Investors need to closely monitor the subsequent performance of the RSI to determine whether the market is in a correction cycle or shifting toward a deeper decline trend.
