BlockBeats News, December 22nd, crypto KOL @ingalvarezsol combined factors such as Polymarket (USD 2-3 billion), OTC point price (USD 90 per point), and pre-market token LIT price (USD 3.4) to forecast Lighter’s valuation:
USD 1.5 billion is the minimum valuation (bear market range, influenced by venture capital funding rounds). USD 3-4.2 billion is the bear market baseline (derived from prediction market/pre-market/point price reverse-calculated market cap). Optimistic expectations are above USD 7.5-12.5 billion (final valuation).
@ingalvarezsol emphasized that Hyperliquid and Lighter are fundamentally not in the same category of products: Hyperliquid is building a Web3-native liquidity layer, primarily profiting from retail trading fees (plus ecosystem dynamics). Lighter is building decentralized trading infrastructure, aiming to integrate fintech companies/brokers/professional market makers over time while maintaining extremely low retail execution costs (including 0% fees on certain spot markets). A key catalyst that could drive Lighter’s valuation upward in the future lies in RWA asset trading.
