September looked like the beginning of an altcoin season. Bitcoin had broken higher, Ethereum and several large-cap tokens were joining the rally, and Glassnode’s Altcoin Cycle Signal shifted away from Bitcoin Season.
The signal captured a real change: capital was moving beyond BTC. What it didn’t capture was how long that rotation would last.
By November 3, 2026, Glassnode’s reading had fallen to 43.75. Bitcoin still represented close to 60% of the crypto market, and Ethereum was weakening against BTC. Individual altcoins continued to rally, but the market-wide rotation had lost momentum.
September was not necessarily a false signal. It was a rotation that failed to develop into a lasting altcoin season.
The Rally Became Narrower
Glassnode’s model compares Bitcoin with the 250 largest altcoins, excluding stablecoins. Its September shift reflected a market in which gains were spreading to Ethereum, XRP, Solana, Dogecoin and smaller assets instead of remaining concentrated in BTC.
That expansion peaked in early October. On October 4, 88% of the top 100 altcoins were trading above their 200-day moving averages. The share later fell to 66%. Across the top 500 assets, only 42% remained above the same long-term trend line.
The difference between those two groups reveals what happened beneath the headline indexes. Large-cap tokens held up reasonably well, while participation among smaller assets deteriorated. The rally still looked healthy at the top, but fewer coins were supporting it.
Glassnode described this as a narrowing advance in its Week On-Chain research. Unless participation broadens again, September is more likely to be remembered as a short risk-on phase inside a Bitcoin-led market than the start of a full altcoin cycle.
Other Altcoin Indexes Tell the Same Story
Altcoin season has no universal definition, so different platforms produce different readings. The useful point is not whether one index says 39 and another says 44. It is whether any of them shows sustained, broad outperformance against Bitcoin.
CoinMarketCap measures how many of the top 100 eligible cryptocurrencies have beaten BTC over 90 days. At least 75% must outperform for the platform to declare an altcoin season. Its Altcoin Season Index remained in the mid-40s in early November.
BlockchainCenter uses 50 large altcoins and a similar 90-day comparison. Its November 2 reading was 39, classified as “Not Altcoin Season.”
The methodologies differ, but the conclusion does not: altcoins were no longer outperforming Bitcoin broadly enough to establish a new market regime.
Bitcoin Still Controls the Market
Bitcoin dominance remained close to 60% in early November, while Ethereum accounted for approximately 10.7% of total crypto market capitalization.
High BTC dominance does not prevent altcoins from rallying. A token with a strong catalyst can outperform Bitcoin even when BTC controls most of the market. What high dominance does show is that those gains have not yet become large enough to shift the structure of the wider market.
A convincing altcoin season would normally involve Bitcoin dominance falling for several weeks while the combined value of the altcoin market rises. So far, that transfer of market share has not taken hold.
Ethereum Has Not Taken the Lead
Ethereum often acts as the bridge between a Bitcoin rally and a wider altcoin rotation. Capital moves into ETH first, then spreads toward DeFi, Layer 1 networks, infrastructure projects, memecoins and smaller tokens.
That makes ETH/BTC more informative than Ethereum’s dollar price. ETH can rise against the dollar and still lose value relative to Bitcoin.
On November 2, ETH was worth approximately 0.02926 BTC after falling around 7.3% against Bitcoin over the previous 30 days. That is not the relative strength normally seen at the beginning of a durable altcoin season.
Ethereum does not need to outperform every day, but it needs to establish a sustained upward trend against BTC. Without that leadership, capital is less likely to move consistently into the riskier end of the market.
Altcoin Opportunities Have Not Disappeared
The failure of a broad altcoin season does not mean every altcoin will underperform. It means performance is being determined by individual catalysts rather than by a rising market tide.
Tokens such as HYPE, PEPE and UNI have produced periods of relative strength, but for different reasons. Perpetual DEX tokens can respond to trading activity, DeFi assets can move on protocol changes, and memecoins can rally when attention and liquidity suddenly concentrate around them.
This is better described as a selective rotation. Money is moving between narratives, not lifting the entire altcoin market.
That distinction affects how traders approach risk. During a genuine altcoin season, capital can spread into weaker projects simply because demand is expanding across the sector. In a narrow market, tokens without liquidity, revenue or a credible catalyst may remain weak even while a few visible names post large gains.
What Would Confirm a Real Altcoin Season?
No single indicator can confirm the transition. The stronger signal would be several parts of the market turning together.
Glassnode’s cycle reading would need to recover and remain in altcoin-favored territory. CoinMarketCap and similar indexes would need to approach or cross their 75% thresholds. Bitcoin dominance would need to decline for more than a brief pullback, while ETH/BTC began forming a durable upward trend.
The quality of the move would also matter. Broad spot-market volume and deeper liquidity would carry more weight than leveraged gains in a handful of low-float tokens.
Until those conditions appear together, calling the market a selective rotation is more accurate than declaring altcoin season.
September Was an Early Signal, Not a New Cycle
September showed that investors were willing to take more risk outside Bitcoin. The move simply did not last long enough or spread far enough.
By early November, altcoin breadth had weakened, ETH was losing ground against BTC and Bitcoin dominance remained near 60%. There were still profitable trades outside Bitcoin, but they came from specific projects and narratives—not from a market-wide expansion.
The next altcoin season will not need to be declared on social media. It will show up in falling Bitcoin dominance, a stronger ETH/BTC ratio, wider participation and sustained spot volume. Those conditions remain incomplete.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Is it altcoin season now?
The major indicators did not confirm an altcoin season in early November 2026. Glassnode’s signal had weakened, Bitcoin dominance remained near 60%, and the leading altcoin indexes stayed below their confirmation thresholds.
What is the Glassnode Altcoin Cycle Signal?
It compares Bitcoin with a basket of the 250 largest altcoins, excluding stablecoins. The signal is designed to show whether relative market conditions currently favor BTC or the broader altcoin market.
Why do altcoin season indexes show different numbers?
Each provider uses a different group of assets, calculation period and data source. CoinMarketCap tracks the top 100 eligible cryptocurrencies, while BlockchainCenter uses 50. Their readings can differ without contradicting each other.
